ROME, July 9 (Xinhua) -- The growth prospects for Italy's economy in the short term are very encouraging after a deep recession in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, the country's National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) said on Friday.
In its annual report, the institute said the consequences of the global health emergency "still characterize the (domestic) economic and social framework."
Nonetheless, it noted that the current, still limited rebound is likely boosted by domestic stimulus measures and by the fact that all major economies at global level have been showing signs of recovery.
SECTORIAL IMPROVEMENTS
"Strong improvements in manufacturing, construction and some segments of tertiary have been recorded in the first quarter of 2021, and short-term prospects are certainly positive," ISTAT said.
The latter evaluation was mainly based on the business and consumer confidence indexes in June, which reached 112.8 points (exceeding pre-pandemic levels) and 115.1 points (highest since October 2018) respectively.
"The business confidence index -- which had already risen in the first months of the year -- registered a very fast improvement in May and even more in June, reaching especially high levels, and above all in construction and industry," ISTAT explained.
The positive trend in manufacturing was a good signal for Italy, for manufacture alone employs some four million workers on average and, since 2000, has been contributing at least one-fifth of the national value added.
In 2020, due to the full lockdown and subsequent partial closures, its production lost 11.1 percent in terms of value, according to a separate ISTAT report issued in April.
On Friday, the institute confirmed its 4.7 percent growth forecast for the Italian economy in 2021, after an 8.9 percent drop in 2020. The forecast was in line, although prudently, with the latest estimate provided by Bank of Italy, the central bank, which earlier this week said annual growth might reach five percent.
A "robust recovery" in economic activity, consumption and investment is thus expected along the year, also thanks to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan recently delivered by the cabinet and approved by the European Union (EU).
HIGHEST POVERTY RISK AMONG YOUNGER PEOPLE
Despite these prospects, the picture of the country's socio-economic situation is not all rosy. The ISTAT report confirmed that the Italian society is still bearing the scars from the pandemic's impact on job market and income levels, and in terms of social inequalities.
"Despite a moderate recovery in employment lately, we still had some 735,000 fewer employees in May compared to the period before the (COVID-19) emergency," ISTAT said.
"The incidence of absolute poverty...is growing strongly, and especially in North Italy."
Workers under 35 are those more at risk of unemployment, and especially in the tertiary, partially because they are more frequently hired on temporary contracts.
For them, the decline in employment "was particularly marked" in the first months of the pandemic, and the disadvantage against other age groups is still quite huge.
Overall, at least 20.5 percent of citizens perceived their economic situation has been worsening after the pandemic hit the country in February 2020, yet older people were less exposed to poverty than younger ones, according to ISTAT.
"Some 12 percent of those aged 65 and above complain that their situation has deteriorated against 26.3 percent of those aged 35-54," it said. Enditem
